This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
Mortgage rates dipped this week. The 30-Year Fixed dropped to 6.31%, a one-month low and the 15-Year Fixed is now at 5.74%, slightly lower than last week. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next week, with another cut likely in December, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The focus remains on balancing inflation pressures with a weakening labor market. While short-term policy is clearer, long-term uncertainty remains due to economic, leadership, and market factors.
Fed Watch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CMEGroup (as of 10/23/2025 – 12:00 PM EST):
A homebuyer on a $3,000 budget has gained $26,000 since last year as mortgage rates drop to the low-6% range.
Map Shows California Cities Where Home Prices Hit Record Highs
While we haven’t seen large numbers of layoffs, monthly hiring is at its lowest level since 6/15, and at the lowest percentage since 3/13. Similarly, job postings on Indeed.com are at their lowest since 2/21. When workers are asked if jobs are “plentiful” or if they’re “hard to get,” the Plentiful-Hard to Get gap was +8 points. Pre-Covid it was +40. American workers are rightfully nervous about losing their jobs. - Elliot F. Eisenberg - Economist
News You Can Use:
· NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.5% Increase in September
· Mortgage Rates Drop Near 3-Year Low, Opening Door For Homebuyers–But Few Are Walking Through
· Low Mortgage Rates Are Keeping Homeowners in ‘Golden Handcuffs’
· Refinance demand is 81% higher than it was a year ago, thanks to falling mortgage rates
· Lower mortgage rates push home sales higher in September
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 10/23/2025, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 10/23/2025 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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