For the week beginning March 31, 2023 – April 6, 2023, 30 Year and 15 Year Conforming rates decreased from the previous week. On Friday, March 31st, Core PCE Inflation (YoY) for Feb showed a decrease of 0.1% from 4.7% to 4.6%, a sign inflation is slowly decreasing. Monday, April 3rd, ISM Manufacturing PMI for Mar decreased from 47.7 to 46.3, suggesting that manufacturing is slowing. Wednesday, April 5th, ADP jobs for Mar decreased from 242K to 145K. Food and Recreation jobs increased by 90K, indicating that the slowdown in jobs is in the white-collar job sector; blue-collar jobs are strong. This trend could directly influence higher-priced home sales. Thursday, April 6, 2023, Challenger layoffs for Mar increased from 77.7K to 89.7K as did weekly Jobless Claims, which increased by 30K.
For the upcoming week of April 7th, 2023 – April 13th, 2023, key data will be released potentially determining the direction of interest rates. On Friday, April 7th Non-Farm payrolls Mar and the MoM Unemployment rate for Mar will be released. The key economic news for the week with the most impact on interest rates will be released on Wednesday, April 12th –the MoM CORE CPI for Mar. The previous month’s figure was 0.5, with a forecast of 0.4 for the upcoming release.
Market in Review:
· Per Black Knights Production Metrics 84.93% of all Mortgage Volume for the week was Purchase transaction, followed by 12.37% Cash out and 2.70% rate and term refinance.
· For the week 56.01% of all Retail loans originated were Government Loans (FHA, VA), while 43.98% were Conventional and Non-Conforming loans. A 3% product shift over the previous week.
News You Can Use:
· Fed is probably done here with rate hikes: Veritas’ Greg Branch
· Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% YoY; New Listings Down 22% YoY
· Where is Housing Policy Leadership
· Did Mortgage Rates Just Go Rogue? Why Today’s ‘Bumpy’ Housing Market Just Got Wilder
· When would-be sellers say, “I’d sell but where would I move to?”
· Layoffs are up nearly fivefold so far this year with tech companies leading the way
· Western Alliance shares cut losses after the bank says deposit outflows are stabilizing
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 04/06/2023, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 04/06/2023 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document maybe used with proper attribution.