Market Update - 4.20.23

Thursday, April 20, 2023

For the week beginning April 13, 2023, and ending on April 20, 2023, the 30 Year and 15 Year Conforming rates increased for the first time in over a month. On Friday, April 14th, 2023, retail sales disappointed, down by -1.0% compared to the -0.4% forecast. On Tuesday, April 18th, two key housing numbers were released: 1) the Housing Starts month-over-month change for March was down by -0.8% compared to the previous month, which was up 7.3% revised; 2) the Building Permits number for March was 1.413M vs. the previous month of 1.550M. On Thursday, April 20th, Jobless Claims increased from 239K the previous month to 245K. Existing Home Sales in March decreased from 4.58M to 4.44M.


For the upcoming week of April 20th, 2023, through April 27th, 2023, the key data releases will be on Tuesday, April 25th, which include Consumer Confidence for April, Case Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA Home Price Index, and new Home Sales for March. This will be followed by Thursday, April 27th, when GDP Advance Q1 data will be released, potentially determining the direction of interest rates. Based on data from the previous week, economists estimate that there is now an 86.0% chance of a 0.25% rate increase from the May Fed Meeting. Potentially positive for the last quarter of 2023, the SOFR futures market is forecasting a 0.5% decrease in interest rates.

Market in Review:

· Per Black Knights Production Metrics 84.23% of all Mortgage Volume for the week was Purchase transaction, followed by 13.49% Cash out and 2.29% rate and term refinance.  

· For the week 57.61% of all Retail loans originated were Government Loans (FHA, VA), while 42.38% were Conventional and Non-Conforming loans.

News You Can Use:

·   Existing Home Sales Slid 2.4%

·   Inflation Cools as Builder Sentiment Rises

·   And the Bottom Drops Out: LEI Digs Even Deeper

· Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 49% YoY; New Listings Down 5% YoY

·  Homebuyers have accepted 6% Mortgage rates as the new normal

·  CME Fed Watch Tool

Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 04/13/2023,are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC.  Not available in all states. Rate is as of 04/13/2023 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document maybe used with proper attribution.

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