Per Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist: “For the period of April 20, 2023– April 27, 2023, 30 Year and 15 Year fixed mortgage rates increased modestly for the second straight week, but with the rate of inflation decelerating, rates should gently decline over the course of 2023. Incoming data suggests the housing market has stabilized from a sales and house perspective. The prospect of lower mortgage rates for the remainder of the year should be welcome news to borrowers who are looking to purchase a home.”
On Tuesday, April 25th, New Home Sales rose by 9.6% in March, easily beating expectations of a -1.3% drop. Additionally, the S&P CoreLogic CS 20-city composite reported a 0.36% annualized rate increase in home prices in February, breaking a seven-month losing streak. Continued low supply, particularly at any affordable price points, seems to be keeping housing from rolling over despite higher borrowing costs. Consumer Confidence in April showed a decrease from 104.2 to 101.3. Meanwhile, Wednesday, April 26th the MBA Purchase index increased from 161.6 to 169.1, supporting stronger purchase demand. Thursday, April 27th, Jobless Claims came in 18K lower than expected at 230K. Conversely, GDP rose at a much slower pace than expected at 1.1% vs an expected 2.0%.
The upcoming week of April 28th, 2023 – May 4th, 2023, will be headlined by Wednesday’s FOMC Rate decision meeting. As of April 27th, there is an 82.8% probability of a rate increase of 0.25 points. Friday, April28th Core PCE Inflation (y/y) March is key data the Fed will use in making its decision. Other important data to review this week will be the ISM manufacturing PMI for April on Monday, May 1st.
Market in Review
Per Black Knights Production Metrics 85.32% of all Mortgage Volume for the week was Purchase transaction, followed by 12.28% Cash out and 2.40% rate and term refinance.
For the week 55.78% of all Retail loans originated were Government Loans (FHA, VA), while 44.21% were Conventional and Non-Conforming loans.
Active listing Count in the United States provided by the St Louis Fed through March 2023
News You Can Use
Understanding the Truth About the New Loan Level PriceAdjusters from PHM's own Ron Wivagg
Setting the Record Straight on Mortgage Pricing: A Statementfrom FHFA Director Sandra L. Thompson
Housing Availability Expectations See Mild Improvement
Existing-Home Sales Slid 2.4% in March
U.S. GDP rose at a 1.1% pace in the first quarter as signs build that the economy is slowing
Lending Likely to Slow Throughout 2023
Share of FHA-Backed New Home Sales Climbs in Q1 2023
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 04/27/2023,are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by Prosperity Home Mortgage, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 04/27/2023 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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