Welcome to our Market Update, written by our very own Capital Market experts. This blog is designed to give you a glance into the most important market events happening this week.
Market Commentary:
Interest rates for the week of July 18th to July 24th remained flat to slightly lower.
Mortgage rates primarily take their cues from the 10-year Treasury yield, which reflects investors' collective expectations regarding inflation, labor market health, upcoming monetary policy shifts and the impact of global factors like tariffs. If investors anticipate persistently high inflation or significant government borrowing, they'll demand higher returns on their bonds, which in turn keeps mortgage rates elevated.
In response, the Federal Reserve has adopted a wait-and-see approach and kept interest rates steady in 2025. Financial markets largely expect the Fed to resume lowering rates in September, particularly if President Trump eases some of his aggressive tariff measures or if the labor market continues to deteriorate.
Fed Watch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CMEGroup (as of 07/24/2025 – 12:00 PM EST):
Top 10 Builders' Share Within the Top 50 Metro Areas - 2024 - interactive map
Map Shows Where Foreign Citizens Are Buying Up U.S. Homes - interactive map
June 2025 Housing Market TrendsReport—Realtor.com Research
Economic Expectations
I expect annualized 25Q2 GDP growth of about 2%, resulting in 25H1 annualized growth of, at best, 1%, vs.2.3% for 24H1. As for 25H2, annualized GDP growth will probably be 1%, meaning CY2025 growth of 1%, anemic, but not negative. As for existing home sales, they come in at 4.05 million, effectively unchanged from 2023 and 2024. Regarding home prices, I expect them to be flat in CY2025. - Elliot Eisenberg, Economist
News You Can Use:
· Why cutting capital gains tax on home sales wouldn’t solve the country’s housing issues
· NY Fed survey finds easier access to auto loans, mortgage refinancing | Reuters
· Fed Forecasts: No Cuts or Three Cuts in 2025?
· Top 10 Builder Market Share Across Metros
· International Buyers Purchased $56 Billion Worth of U.S. Homes from April '24 to March '25
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate(APR) are based on current market conditions as of 07/24/2025, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 07/24/2025 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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