This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to keep the benchmark federal funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. The policymakers are navigating their way through higher-than-expected inflation readings, mixed signs on the labor market and a war. In its post-meeting statement, the Fed made few changes to its view on the economy, with a slightly faster pace of growth and higher inflation projections for the full year. This pause signals continued rate stability in the near term, with policymakers still projecting the possibility of one rate cut later in 2026.
FedWatch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group (as of 03/19/2026 – 12:00 PM EST):
Today’s Homebuyers Save $150 a Month By Choosing an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage–The Biggest Discount Since 2022:
Flat Conditions for Open Construction Jobs:
Remarkable Resilience:
The US economy has shown remarkable resilience despite tariff shocks, the rise of AI and minimal job growth, reduced population growth due to immigration policies, weak consumer sentiment and a prolonged government shutdown. Despite all this, real GDP is growing at 2%/year. Now the economy faces higher oil prices and inflation, deteriorating conditions in private equity/debt markets, and the prospect of no rate cuts. I’m optimistic but reasonably concerned. - Elliot Eisenberg, Economist
News You Can Use:
· Fed meeting recap: Powell says inflation isn’t coming down as much as ‘hoped’
· Views for next Fed rate cut pushed back after hot inflation report
· NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 1.8% Increase in February
· Builder Sentiment Inches Higher but Affordability Concerns Persist | NAHB
· Building Material Price Growth Remains Entrenched Above 3% – Eye On Housing
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 03/19/2026, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. Actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 03/19/2026 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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