This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
Mortgage rates spiked to near one-year highs this week, with the 30-year fixed rate briefly reaching 6.77% as bond markets reacted to inflation fears and rising fuel prices. The key macroeconomic drivers are geopolitical pressure: Ongoing conflict involving Iran pushed oil prices back toward $85–$87 a barrel, directly threatening to reignite broader headline economic inflation. Hawkish Fed Stance: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated the central bank has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation," convincing economists that rate cuts are off the table for July, with growing chatter regarding a potential hike later this year. Spike in Bond Yields: The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.52% to over 4.65%, moving inverse to a selling stock market and dragging consumer mortgage rates up along with it.
FedWatch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group (as of 07/23/2026– 12:00 PM EST):
Shrinking Lots: Trend Levels Off as Smaller Lots Remain the Norm
Market Clock 2026 Q2: 100 Metros and the Most Buyer-Friendly Spring in Years
Claims Conundrum
Job growth over the past year has been very weak, yet initial jobless claims have been surprisingly low for some time. While this may indicate a labor market that’s fine, I’m suspicious. I suspect layoffs are not occurring in manufacturing, where you go straight to the unemployment office once laid off, but rather in services. There, laid-off workers often receive severance packages that delay/reduce their eligibility for unemployment benefits. -Elliot Eisenberg, Economist
News You Can Use:
· Jamie Dimon warns stock market and Treasury bond risks underpriced | Fox Business
· Mortgage rates are rising again
· US yields are pushing to new highs and along with it the US dollar
· The New Parent Real Estate Penalty: Why Starting a Family May Mean Moving
· After Years of Waiting, Buyers Are Getting Their Summer: Realtor.com® June Housing Report
· The 5 Affordable Job Hubs Where Career Opportunities Are Exploding
· Non-agency is Not Subprime: Why Stigma Persists
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 07/23/2026, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. Actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 07/23/2026 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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