This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
Mortgage rates spent the week drifting slightly higher after an early dip, with the 30‑year fixed moving from the mid‑6.4% range up to about6.6% by June 25th. Markets remained stuck in a narrow band as stubborn inflation and firm Treasury yields kept downward pressure limited. Economic data didn’t provide any major surprises, and investors largely stayed in wait‑and‑see mode ahead of future inflation readings and Fed signals. The result was a week defined more by small fluctuations than any decisive trend.
Purchase activity softened slightly, while refinance volume saw a modest uptick as opportunistic borrowers reacted to brief rate improvements. With rates likely to stay range‑bound in the near term, the most effective strategy is helping clients stay ready to lock when micro‑windows appear and setting realistic expectations about affordability and market pace.
FedWatch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group (as of 06/25/2026 – 12:00 PM EST):
11 Affordable States Where Buyers Can Avoid Going House-Poor
A= most affordable; F= least affordable
From MTV Cribs to Mortgage Math: How Millennials Actually Bought Homes
Mom-and-Pop Investors Are Dominating the Housing Market—and Wall Street Is Backing Out
Payment Pain
With the median sales price of an existing single-family house at $409,000 in 25Q4, assuming a 3.5% down payment and a 6.23% interest rate, the monthly mortgage payment would be $2,420/month, versus $1,240 at the end of 2020. Add taxes, insurance, maintenance, etc. and the total housing cost rises to $3,120/month. To afford that, a buyer needs an income of $120,800, up from just $68,700 five years earlier. Ouch.- Elliot Eisenberg, Economist
News You Can Use:
· 10-year Treasury yield falls below 4.5% as oil falls to pre-war levels
· Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey | MBA
· Congress Takes Historic Step on Housing Affordability with Bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act
· USGDP final Q1 2.1% versus 1.6% estimate
· Mom-and-Pop Investors Dominate Real Estate Market as Wall Street Backs Out
· Incomes Are Surpassing Living Costs in These Deep South States
· New-Home Sales Tumble in May as Mortgage Rates Remain High
· Trump Abruptly Cancels Signing of Major Housing Bill
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 06/25/2026, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. Actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 06/25/2026 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
.png)
