This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
For the week of April 10th to April 16th, rates ticked slightly lower as markets digested softer inflation data and mixed economic indicators. Housing supply remains tight, buyer demand is rate‑sensitive, and macro uncertainty continues to drive volatility. CPI came in slightly cooler than forecast. Core inflation (excluding food & energy) also eased. PPI (producer inflation) showed slower price growth, reinforcing the cooling trend. Weekly jobless claims showing a still‑strong labor market and wage growth remains elevated but is cooling gradually. Fed officials reiterated a data‑dependent stance. Markets still expect one to two rate cuts later in 2026, but timing remains uncertain.
Markets are watching inflation closely; any cooling could push rates lower. Inventory trends suggest continued tight supply, but not worsening dramatically. Expect a gradual increase in buyer activity if rates continue their mild downward trend.
FedWatch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group (as of 04/16/2026 – 12:00 PM EST):
Builder Sentiment Posts Notable Decline on Economic Uncertainty:
Higher Energy Prices Increase Residential Construction Costs:
San Francisco Home Prices Jump Most in 8 Years Amid AI Boom
Perplexing Pricing:
Perplexing Pricing While oil prices have risen dramatically due to the Iran War, US natural gas prices have marginally declined. Moreover, higher oil prices may cause natural gas prices to decline further. Why? Because high oil prices should encourage US oil producers to drill more and when they do, they will produce natural gas as a byproduct. The low price should shield US consumers and give US manufacturers a competitive edge. - Elliot Eisenberg, Economist
News You Can Use:
· Mortgage applications rise as rates fall to one-month low
· The private-credit mess won't lead to a financial crisis like 2008's, says top IMF official
· ADP NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT REPORT Press Release 2026
· NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 3.6% Decrease in March
· Trump Threatens To Fire Fed Chair Powell if He Refuses To Resign
· Homebuilder Confidence Plunges as High Interest Rates and Economic Fears Take a Toll
· Where’s My Refund—and Why Wasn't It Higher This Year?
· Fed's Beige Book: Overall activity showed slight to modest growth in 8 of 12 districts
· S&P 500 rises above 7000 to new record high. Was there a tell at the war bottom?
· Empire State Manufacturing Survey
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 04/16/2026, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. Actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 04/16/2026 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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