This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
Between September 5th and 11th, 2025, the mortgage market was shaped by sharp shifts in labor data and Fed expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a major benchmark revision showing that 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months ending March 2025 than previously reported, while the August jobs report revealed only 22,000 new positions added and unemployment rising to 4.3%, its highest since 2021. Weekly jobless claims also climbed to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, underscoring a softening labor market. Inflation data remained sticky, with the CPI showing a 2.9% annual increase in August and core inflation holding at3.1%. The weaker employment backdrop prompted bond yields to retreat, pushing the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate down to roughly 6.52%, a new low for the year, with 15-year rates near 6.06%.
Market sentiment shifted firmly toward expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming September meeting, with traders nearly fully pricing in a 25 basis-point move. Mortgage demand surged in response, with purchase and refinance applications reaching some of their strongest levels since 2022, while secondary market pricing reflected rates as low as 6.27% for well-qualified borrowers. Despite the rate relief, affordability challenges persist as high home prices and job market uncertainty weigh on buyer sentiment.
Fed Watch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CMEGroup (as of 09/11/2025 – 12:00 PM EST):
Metros Where Homes Are Selling the Fastest as U.S. Market Stalls:
Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) shows the Top 10 coolest markets:
Share of New Homes with Patios Edges Down for First Time in Fifteen Years:
Who Are NAHB Remodelers?
U.S. Housing Market Value Hits $55.1 Trillion:
Last year, American, Delta, United, and Southwest posted a combined $12 billion passenger operating loss but still recorded $13.5 billion in net profits. While freight helped, loyalty programs that bind customers to airlines and airline credit cards were primarily why. In 2Q25, Delta received $2.1 billion, American $1.4 billion, and United $800 million from AmEx, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase for miles awarded to bank/airline credit card holders. - Elliot F. Eisenberg the Bowtie Economist
News You Can Use:
· Mortgage demand jumps to the highest level in three years, as interest rates drop sharply
· Housing market hits rare balance as 7 big metros turn buyer-friendly
· Jobs report revisions September 2025
· Traders see a chance the Fed cuts by a half point
· How a Housing Emergency Could Help First-Time Buyers
· Surprise Drop in U.S. Wholesale Prices in August Raises Pressure on Fed To Cut Rates
· Trump Vows To Make Millions More Americans Homeowners
· Trigger leads bill becomes law as Trump signs legislation backed by mortgage groups -Scotsman Guide
· America’s housing market gained $20,000,000,000,000 in 5 years | CNN Business
· Homeowners dash to refinance as mortgage rates dive — with some home buyers coming off the sidelines
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 09/11/2025, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. Actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 09/11/2025 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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