This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
From January 9th to 15th, mortgage rates were stable to slightly declining and trending lower by midmonth. Economic data releases and expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting played central roles in shaping the week’s rate environment.
On Jan 9th, mortgage rates fell sharply after President Trump instructed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds, pushing rates to their lowest level in nearly three years. This move boosted homebuilder stocks and improved consumer sentiment—important for both new‑construction and resale markets. With the first 2026 Fed meeting approaching, markets are pricing in stability rather than hikes, helping keep rates contained. Recent unemployment and inflation reports reinforced the trend toward gradual easing, not tightening.
30-Year Mortgage Rates Predictions For 2026:
FedWatch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group (as of 01/15/2026 – 12:00 PM EST):
December 2025 Home Data Index Market Report:
New-Home Prices Fall to 4-Year Low as Builders Deepen Discounts:
Growth for Custom Home Building:
How much will wages increase in 2026?
Situational Status:
If an economy is at full employment and enjoys stable inflation, wage growth will equal labor productivity growth plus inflation (LPG+I). If wages exceed LPG+I, unemployment is too low and inflationary pressure will build. If the opposite is true, there’s labor market slack and inflationary pressures will weaken. Wage growth is now 3.8%, and LPG+I is 4.6%, signaling modest excess labor supply even though the unemployment rate is just 4.4%. -Elliot Eisenberg, Economist
News You Can Use:
· NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 5.1% Increase in December
· Wholesale inflation was softer than expected, retail sales moved higher in November
· Trump team drafting executive order on affordability - POLITICO
· CPI inflation report December 2026: Prices rose at 2.6% annual rate
· Will Mortgage Rates Improve More than Expected in 2026? - Zillow Research
· Pending Home Sales Hit Second Lowest Level on Record
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 01/15/2026, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 01/15/2026 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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