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Market Update - May 3, 2024

Friday, May 3, 2024

This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends. 

Rates are provided by Housing Wire in conjunction with Polly. Rates are updated in real-time. Polly data is calculated using actual locked rates. Rates are inclusive of locks that occur below par, at par and therefore consider discounts and rebates.

Market Commentary:

For the week of April 26th to May 2nd, interest rates increased slightly due to the employment cost index showing a bit stronger wage growth month-to-month. Inflation ran hot over the last couple of years, but with already-high rates and a clear cooling trend recently, the Fed has decided to leave rates steady for now. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was unlikely that the central bank's next move would be a rate hike.

Fed Watch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group:

Market Review:

Per Black Knight's Production Metrics, the breakdown of mortgage production volume is as follows: 88.80% for purchase transactions, 8.61% for cash-out refinances, and 2.59% for rate and term refinances.

April Spotlight: Spring Homebuying Season

Property Percentages:

The total value of American property, excluding farmland, is $66 trillion. Of that, 25% is commercial, and of that, office space is probably $4 trillion. Between 2007 and 2009, US residential real estate lost a third of its value, which today would mean a decline of $16 trillion. Even if office values fall by half that would be just $2 trillion in losses, enough to be painful but not more. - Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. , Economist

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