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Market Update - March 22, 2024

Friday, March 22, 2024

This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.

Rates are provided by Housing Wire in conjunction with Polly. Rates are updated in real-time. Polly data is calculated using actual locked rates. Rates are inclusive of locks that occur below par, at par and therefore consider discounts and rebates.

Market Commentary:

For the week of March 15th - March 21st, the 30-year and 15-year interest rates remained unchanged. The Federal Reserve holds rates steady and maintains three cuts coming sometime this year as per the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, March 20th. Economists see June as the cutoff date for an initial cut.

Fed Watch: Looking ahead to the upcoming May 11th, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to the CME Group, 0.00% of forecasters predict an increase in interest rates, while 90.3% predict rates will remain the same. 9.7% of forecasters expect rates to decrease.

Market Review:

Per Black Knight's Production Metrics, the breakdown of mortgage production volume is as follows: 84.11% for purchase transactions, 12.43% for cash-out refinances, and 3.46% for rate and term refinances.

Per Black Knight 53.35% of all Retail loan production were Government Loans (FHA, VA, USDA), while 46.52% were Conventional and Non-Conforming loans.
Underlying fundamentals of housing demand remain strong.
Home prices grew significantly from 2019 to 2022.
Vast majority of mortgaged homeowners have rates well below market.
Housing affordability pressures remain elevated.
Housing and mortgage market outlook.

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